Posts Tagged ‘Fukushima’

Joseph Mangano never stops, and he never gets it right

Wednesday, August 29th, 2012

Joseph Mangano has once again puffed too hard on the alarmist pipe, now with a new article in the August 15 edition of the political newsletter Counterpunch. We recognize the pattern from before: First spread a bit of scaremongering disguised as research in some fringe media. You mix the alarmistic message with some caution in order to cover your back in case somebody will put you to task, knowing that the alarmistic part will advertise itself, be inflated and spread through the internet and possibly some news media. Then some time later you publish an extended study with a similar message in a scientific journal with low quality threshold.

Joseph Mangano seems happily surprised that people once again are falling for his junk science.

This time the title of the Counterpunch article starts with the rather cynical Let the Counting Begin followed by Fukushima’s Nuclear Casualties. It is just a calculation exercise for Joe, and it could have been an interesting one if it weren't for the fact that:

  • he is counting dead people in Japan during 2011, claiming that the cause of death for 38,700 of them are unexplained, with the implication that radioactivity from Fukushima is the cause, and
  • a closer scrutiny shows that once again he is handling the data in a very irresponsible way in order to push his own anti-nuclear agenda.

(more...)

Radioactive tourism - A trip to the Ytterby mine

Tuesday, July 17th, 2012

I am taking a online geology course for fun right now, the subject has always interested me and it is quite different from the maths heavy physics I am used to. Sweden has a grand history in geology, mineralogy and chemistry and chief among historic locations must be the mine in Ytterby, a suburb to Stockholm. In 1787 the lieutenant, chemist and amature geologist Carl Axel Arrhenius was sorting through the mine heap at Ytterby and discovered a unusually heavy black rock. Realizing that it must be a undiscovered mineral he sent samples of the rock to several chemists for analysis. The man that did the best job was Johan Gadolin and the mineral was named Gadolinite in his honor. The mineral contains, among other things, the element yttrium and it was the first of the rare earth elements to be discovered. Another 6 new elements where discovered in minerals from Ytterby and no less than 4 is named directly after the location (Yttrium, Terbium, Erbium and Ytterbium along with Skandium, Thulium and Holmium).

I happen to live in Stockholm which means a small field trip to Ytterby is a must and there I went a few weeks ago. Anyone that has been following the rare earth situation in China also knows that where there is rare earths usually one also finds Thorium, properly armed with a dosimeter I was looking forward to some rads! (more...)

The first WHO and UNSCEAR reports on the health consequences of Fukushima

Thursday, May 24th, 2012

is on the way.... Nature has an article about it, here are some highlights.

The risk to the roughly 140,000 civilians who had been living within a few tens of kilometres of the plant seems even lower. Because detailed radiation measurements were un available at the time of the accident, the WHO estimated doses to the public, including radiation exposure from inhalation, ingestion and fallout. The agency concludes that most residents of Fukushima and neighbouring Japanese prefectures received a dose below 10 mSv. Residents of Namie town and Iitate village, two areas that were not evacuated until months after the accident, received 10–50 mSv. The government aims to keep public exposure from the accident below 20 mSv per year, but in the longer term it wants to decontaminate the region so that residents will receive no more than 1 mSv per year from the accident.

The WHO’s calculations are consistent with several health surveys conducted by Japanese scientists, which found civilian doses at or below the 1–15-mSv range, even among people living near the plant. One worrying exception is that infants in Namie town may have been exposed to enough iodine-131 to receive an estimated thyroid dose of 100–200 mSv, raising their risk of thyroid cancer. But data collected from 1,080 children in the region found that none had received a thyroid dose greater than 50 mSv. Chernobyl’s main cancer legacy in children was thyroid cancer.

But most importantly is this

A far greater health risk may come from the psychological stress created by the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster. After Chernobyl, evacuees were more likely to experience post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) than the population as a whole, according to Evelyn Bromet, a psychiatric epidemiologist at the State University of New York, Stony Brook. The risk may be even greater at Fukushima. “I’ve never seen PTSD questionnaires like this,” she says of a survey being conducted by Fukushima Medical University. People are “utterly fearful and deeply angry. There’s nobody that they trust any more for information.”

To bad people like Sherman and Mangano, Gundersen, Busby, Caldicott, Matsumura and a host of other people and their fan clubs within the "environmental movement" are doing everything they can to spread excessive and scientifically unfounded fear of radiation.

A look at recriticality during meltdown, part 1

Monday, May 21st, 2012

The issue of recriticality in the damaged reactors at Fukushima pops up every now and then (a few examples link1, link2, link3, link4). Perhaps it is worth taking a look at what recriticality means, how likely it is and what it would mean if the cores goe critical. These posts will contain some maths and give some insight into basic reactor physics. Despite what most people think it is actually quite easy as long as one can follow the solution of some simple differential equations.

We will look at two different cases, in the first case the core has melted completely and is as a molten puddle or bed of "gravel" at the bottom of the vessel. In the second case the fuel rods are still mostly geometrically intact while the control rods have melted. If I have energy I might throw in a section about criticality in spent fuel pools as well at the end. We start with the completely molten core because it is easier and highlights all the relevant physics.

What exactly is criticality?

Fission is a reaction whereby a incoming neutron hits a nucleus, the nucleus then has a certain probability (depending on the energy of the neutron, what nucleus it is etc) of splitting into two roughly equally large pieces and in the process emit 2-3 new neutrons. Those neutrons can in turn hit new nuclei that causes more fissioning and voila, we have a chain reaction. If we assume we have a system where nothing is happening and we send in a burst of neutrons, those neutrons, that we will call the first generation, will cause an initial amount of fission reactions that produce a second generation of neutrons which goes on to create a third generation etc. Criticality is simply defined as the ratio between a subsequent generation with the one preceding it, it is usually designated by the letter K. (more...)

The spent fuel pool at Fukushima #4

Friday, May 11th, 2012

A former DOE assistant secretary for renewable energy, Robert Alvarez, has lately been spreading a lot of fearmongering about the stability of the spent fuel pool in reactor 4 at Fukushima. From the start of the accident a lot of question marks regarding the pool has been floating around, including the statement from the NRC chairman Jaczko that the pool might have run dry. Later is was however shown that the pool was never in any danger, it was never damaged in the earthquake and tsunami and it never ran dry. TEPCO released footage from the pool itself and its clear that it is intact and full of water. (more...)

Did the Japanese authorities lie about the Fukushima accident? Part 1.

Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012

A powerpoint presentation made by professor Majia Holmer Nadesan is getting some attention around the web, in the presentation she claims that the Japanese authorities, among others, lied and covered up information about the Fukushima accident. So let's have a look at it.

(more...)

Har Miljöpartiet glömt Banqiao och Bhopal?

Wednesday, April 11th, 2012


 

Den andra december 1984 började Union Carbides bekämningsmedelsfabrik i Bhopal läcka kemikalier ut i omgivningen. Det är inte klart vad som orsakade läckan, det kan ha varit sabotage av en missnöjd anställd eller bara ren slump. Men konsekvenserna blev katastrofala. Människor överallt runt fabriken vaknade upp med hosta, kräkningar och kvävningskänslor.

 


De som försökte fly till fots exponerades bara värre, barn drabbades värst på grund av att kemikalierna var tyngre än luft. 3000 människor dog inom en vecka och ytterligare 8000 har dött pga sjukdomar orsakat av utsläppen. Upp till 200 000 människor har fått permanenta skador pga Bhopal. Bhopal räknas som en av de värsta industrikatastroferna någonsin och det mänskliga lidandet är omätbart.

 

Klockan 0:30 den 8 augusti 1975 kollapsade Shimantandammen i Kina, vattnet från det haveriet forsade över den redan överfyllda Banqiaodammen som även den brast och den resulterande flodvågen slet sönder över 60 fler dammar utefter Rufloden.  När vattnet passerat hade närmare 6 miljoner byggnader spolats bort och 26 000 människor dog direkt.  I de efterföljande epidemierna och hungersnöden dog ytterligare 145 000 människor. Det är med råge den värsta industriella olyckan någonsin, men det är bara en i en rad allvarliga dammhaverier som skett över hela värden. Till och med i Fukushimaprovinsen brast en damm pga jordbävningen och den resulterande flodvågen dödade 8 personer, dubbelt så många dödsfall som vid Fukushima Daiichikärnkraftverket.

Varför anklagar vi Miljöpartiet för att ha glömt bort dessa katastrofer? Vi gör det eftersom Miljöpartiet, med Lise Nordin i spetsen, blint hävdar att kärnkraft är den enda industrin som kan orsaka katastrofer. De hävdar det genom att påskina att kärnkraftsindustrin är unikt subventionerad eftersom den inte behöver betala en försäkring för den maximalt tänkbara olyckshändelsen. Då miljöpartiet blint riktar in sig på kärnkraften i artikel efter artikel efter artikel efter artikel, utan att med ett ord nämna andra riskindustrier, som tex kemikalieindustrin, petroleumindustrin, vattenkraften, flygindustrin och transporten av farliga kemikalier, kan man bara dra slutsatsen att Miljöpartiet ignorerar andra industriella risker. Den enda risken de bryr sig om är risken från kärnkraft.

En sådan attityd är farlig, om man särbehandlar en industri och blundar för andra industrier, då skapar man inte ett säkrare Sverige. Man ger bara sken av att bry sig om säkerhet när allt i slutändan handlar om ideologi. Om Miljöpartiet verkligen bryr sig om risker och vill göra Sverige säkrare borde de argumentera för att alla riskindustrier ska lyda samma regelverk. Den nya lagstiftningen som Miljöpartiet kritiserar jämnar bara ut spelfältet. Kärnkraften måste nu spela enligt precis samma regler som andra riskindustrier. Miljöpartiets fixering vid kärnkraft är precis lika destruktiv som deras fixering vid uranbrytning, antingen är regler och lagar godtagbara för alla riskindustrier och all sorts gruvbrytning, eller så är de inte det. Säkerheten blir inte bättre av att blint stirra på en sorts industri eller en sorts gruva.

Om Miljöpartiet anser att kraven på riskindustrier är otillräckligt, då borde de argumentera för att skärpa reglerna för alla sådana industrier. Om katastrofer ska användas som argument, då kan man inte glömma bort Bhopal, Banqiao och andra stora industriella katastrofer som skett som är av samma omfattning som Tjernobyl eller Fukushima.

Relevanta bloggar:
Mikael Ståldal Kärnkraften är fortfarande inte subventionerad
Aftonbladet Syn i bluffen om energipolitik
Mikael Andersson (C) Kärnkraft utan statliga subventioner är detsamma som ingen ny kärnkraft!
Martin Moberg Dagens lästips om C:s harakiri i kärnkraftsfrågan...
Mitt i steget Harakiri
Alliansfritt Sverige Ny överenskommelse om kärnkraft - fortsatt förvirring
Supermiljöbloggen Hatts svårlösta kärnkraftsekvation
Anna-Karin Hatt Inga subventioner till kärnkraften

Dagen då 20 000 döda blev en fotnot

Monday, March 12th, 2012

Kommentarer överflödiga....

DN ”Kärnkraft självmord för Japan

SvD Sverige måste ta lärdom av kärnkraftskatastrofen

Aftonbladet Kärnkraftens pris är ohyggligt högt

UNT Forsmark som Fukushima

Examining some old Fukushima news

Sunday, February 26th, 2012

An old news article is circulating around that states that 68 tons of fuel has melted in reactor number 1 and that it was close to breaching the bottom of the containment. The article is several months old but for some reason I have seen it pop up again on facebook so I though it is worth examining the article briefly. In particular I want to examine this statement.

Only 37 centimeters of concrete remains between the fuel and the vessel's outermost steel wall in the most damaged area, TEPCO said.

This wording is repeatedly used by anti nuclear sources to imply that a much worse disaster was very close to happening. What the articles fail to mention however is that there is A LOT more concrete between the ground and the molten core. The reactor building itself is a very thick concrete structure. Will Davis, on his excellent blog Atomic Power Review, talked about this the first time the news about the number one vessel failure showed up last November. Some of what he wrote is worth repeating and I hope he doesn't mind me repeating it here and also posting a picture from his blog.

The NHK report indicates a melt depth of about 2.1 feet(64 cm, my note /Johan). The distance to the ground is roughly eighteen times this depth from the dry well interior floor to grade. Below is a drawing from WASH-1082 which I've marked to show the distance from the dry well floor to the grade outside, which on the particular plant shown is 39' 0"(11.8 meters, my note /Johan). I do not presently know the exact measurement at Fukushima Daiichi No. 1 but it is likely within ten percent of this measurement... meaning that in the worst case that TEPCO is describing, by its own data, the core material may have melted only about as much as 5% of the distance to the grade.

I encourage everyone to read the rest of his blog as it is by far the best information source for the Fukushima accident.

 

I also want to add this picture of the mark I containment that schematically shows the thick concrete even more clearly! Picture found at the blog "The capacity factor".

So we see that there is a tremendous amount of concrete below the shell of the containment structure. The hints and suggestions that the core would only have to melt another 37 centimeters for a unnamed disaster to take place is obviously false. In reality the shell of the containment is integrated into a thick concrete structure and the molten core would have to melt through several more meters, likely around 10 meters, to get out of the reactor building itself.

The cleanup of the containment is going to be a very hard and messy job, much worse than the cleanup of TMI was. But the core is still a long long way from the ground.

 

/Johan

 

Welcome Fukushima progress

Wednesday, June 29th, 2011

We are now over 3 months into the Fukushima accident, progress is creeping along at a steady pace. Since our last update there has been lots and lots of new and I won't try to cover it all. The biggest news I want to share now is that TEPCO has gotten some kind of recirculation cooling working, it was reported today by Will Davis at Atomic Power Review(by far the best blog to keep an eye on for Fukushima news, I highly recommend to read it).

In short water is leaking out of the containment buildings into the turbine buildings, the water is pumped from the turbine buildings into the water treatment facility, then from there its pumped back into the reactor. Its like I described in the last update on may 18th (shown on the picture below) and one of the steps in the plan TEPCO released that month.

If everything goes well now the volumes of contaminated water will start to creep down, a proper toast is in order!

Another fairly recent news is that NRC announced that the spent fuel pools in Fukushima never went dry. That really calls into question Chairman Jaszco's recommendation for a larger evacuation zone for american citizens in Japan than what the Japanese authorities had decided.

There has also been a lot of bullshit flying around about the situation in Fort Calhoun due to the river flooding around the nuclear power plant. Claims about goverment cover ups, Russian authorities warning about disaster etc. I haven't bothered to look more in detail into it yet, but so far the reactor has both working diesels and connection to the external grid and quite a bit of margin before the river even comes near to flood over the flood protections. Here is a good post by Neutron Economy about the situation.

Why I'm not worrying about Fort Calhoun (and you shouldn't either)

 

Links(English)
Rod Adams Ted Rockwell - Fukushima: It's Not About Radiation, It's About Tsunamis
NEI Nuclear Notes Friday Update
World Nuclear News Fukushima cover on its way
The Neutron Economy Expected Doses Over a Year and Evacuation of Fukushima Towns
Will Davis How the Misinformation Superhighway affects Nuclear Energy
Will Davis JAIF Public Opinion Poll Data

 

Links(Swedish)
Med örat mot rälsen Kärnkraften igen
Kultur Ska vi glömma Fukushima?
Seppo Laine Mycket värre än man kunde tro

 

Status for each reactor

/Johan