Last updated on March 1, 2013
By Michael Karnerfors, 2009-11-04
Every now and then I come across (link in Swedish) the following argument against nuclear power:
“All the safety devices, procedures, regulation and supervision prove that nuclear power is unsafe.”
And it baffles me every time, because what that boils down to is someone saying something that means: “It’s unsafe because it’s so safe!”.
The (lack of) logic reasoning applied to something else, say a staircase, is exemplified thus:
– This staircase is unsafe, because it has a railing!
– How do you mean?
– Because if the railing wasn’t there, I could fall over the side and hurt myself.
– Yes but the railing is there to stop you from falling over the side and hurting yourself.
– Exactly, so the staircase is unsafe, because it needs the railing.
– But the railing is an integral part of the staircase now. Are you suggesting you can run right through a two inch thick stainless steel railing?
– Well if I could I’d fall over the side and hurt myself.
– So… can you make your way through stainless steel railing or not?
– That’s not the point! The point is that it needs the railing so it’s unsafe!
– Look, not only does it have the railing, but the railing is in turn stuck to a concrete wall that goes all the way up to the ceiling.
– Oh my!! Then it’s really unsafe if it has that much safety! Now I won’t got near that damned thing because I just know I’ll fall over the side and hurt myself!
…and so on.
Kafka would have a field-day with this…
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It almost goes hand in hand with the notion that if you are an expert on nuclear energy, then you are inherently untrustworthy and know far less than the “independent experts” in the environmental movement….
Well, the safety thing comes down to redundancy, and the fact of the matter is that you could make the argument that a modern reactor has more safety features than it really needs to. That said, it is always good to air on the side of safety, and since the operating costs are low in general, it doesn’t ad that much cost to make it ultra-safe.
A modern power reactor has a very well built containment structure that will hold against tornado or the explosion of the pressure vessel at full power or a plane crashing into it. Have we ever needed the containment structure to contain a catastrophic failure of the pressure vessel? No. But it’s still nice to have it there, because most nuclear supporters are all about safety so we like having extra layers that we know we’ll almost certainly never need.
It’s like the railing on the staircase. Lets say you have a staircase that only goes up one story and is fairly wide and not very steep. Do you really need a railing? Well, if the railing was not there, it’s still unlikely that you’d fall off and even if you did fall off, you probably wouldn’t be that badly hurt, especially if you were not all the way up the stairs.
I’d have no problem climbing a one story staircase without a railing, but I still think it’s a good idea to have one, just to make it even safer, despite the fact that it’s not that unsafe even with one.
Another thing to consider about this is that a lot of the extreme safety measures come down to addressing public and political concerns. One of the things about nuclear power is that you have to avoid any kind of accident, even if it’s not fatal. In the US we had the Three Mile Island incident which didn’t hurt anyone. All the active safety systems failed and the core ended up partially melting. The damage was all internal, but the reactor was a write-off.
In another industry you’d look at such an event and say that it was regrettable and expensive, but it’s not a huge deal that the systems fail and equipment gets destroyed. Sure, when it happens, it’s a loss, but you have insurance and so it’s an acceptable risk. The problem is that with the nuclear incident, it’s not simply an equipment write-off, it’s a PR disaster that impacts decades later.
You see this same kind of redundant safety consideration elsewhere.
A modern aircraft is piloted by someone who has simulator trained for all kinds of incidents they’ll almost certainly never face. An airline pilot will train repeatedly to bring an aircraft down safely with no engines or in extreme windshere or any number of other events that almost never happen. It has redundant backup hydraulics and it has multiple emergency exits, flotation seat cushions, life vests, oxygen masks, inflatable slides that double as life rafts, med kits, locator beacons for the rafts.
Many of the scenarios that have been trained for and equipped for have never even happened in reality. I’m not aware of any situation where an aircraft has been forced to ditch in the open ocean during a storm and then have the passengers all survive on the life rafts, using the supplies on them, for a period of days, while receiving first aid until finally a search and rescue aircraft is signaled with a mirror or flair. Despite that, should that event happen, the crew is trained for it and there is equipment for it.
What if you fall forwards down the stairs?
That is an acceptable risk, while falling over the edge is not.
The problem is that nuclear power opponents discuss in terms of All or Nothing. There is no grading of risk to them. To them any risk with a nuclear power plant equals nuclear disaster. And that’s just dumbing the debate into nonsense.
Just as with the staircase, one has to look at what the possible outcome is. Falling over the side from 10 meters up in the air inevitably has a catastrophic outcome. Falling along the staircase does not.
Just as with any other activity, we have to judge gains vs possible loss. And any claim that an accident in a modern nuclear power plant may mean we lose half the world must be concidered nonsens, in the same way that the claim that an accident with a firecracker could demolish New York city would be concidered such.
did you just stop to realize you’re arguing about a staircase? the green perspective (which you should clarify a bit more) is that if something needs that many precautions, then its f**king dangerous! like in airplanes so many things can go wrong that pilots must be trained, but with nuclear power, the odds are against you. the odds of dying in a plane crash are 1:167, 364,016 in contrast to the 1:10000 of something going horribly wrong with a reactor (plane data by planecrashinfo.com, nuke by MIT, http://web.mit.edu/nuclearpower/) now you might say, why pyro!, there aren’t as many reactors as airplanes! and if you have thought anything along these lines then I ask you to /facepalm. cause thats how much your logic just failed. btw congrats on the stair analogy! almost as clever as “they killed people with steel!”
the green perspective…
What’s green about that perspective?
(which you should clarify a bit more) is that if something needs that many precautions, then its f**king dangerous!
That was exactly what I described above. And it’s a bogus argument for reasons also described above. You are basically claiming that the staircase pictured is the most dangerous one in existance since it is physically impossible to fall over the side without first dynamiting the wall away.
/Michael
I think dynamiting the walls it a bit too strong of a metaphor, seeing that it wouldn’t really take that much to make it all go flush. I think “taking out a few screws” would show the venerability of these plants. And no insight to my windmill reference? :'(
Well pyro, to expand on your plane analogy: planes have the physical capability of falling out of the sky. If however you were to allow them to fly no faster than 50 km/h and only 5 meters above the ground, then I think you would agree with me that – apart from the nonsensical impracticalities my somewhat strained example presents – you have drastically reduced the amont of damage that can be done to the plane even if it does have an accident… wouldn’t you agree?
That’s what nuclear safety is all about: make the plant so that the worst case scenario is such that you have to break the laws of physics for it to happen.
Now you are claiming this makes it unsafe. I’m sayin’ the opposite: it’s the safety measures that makes it safe. And if every safety measure was taken out… then we still have the reactor running in such a way that it needs to break known laws of physics to actually do any harm.
This is what they did wrong at Chornobyl (*): they made a reator that could experience uncommanded and out-of-control power exursions. Lightwater reactors on the other hand, can’t… because of the laws of physics.
(*) Apparently Chornobyl is more correctly latinized Urkranian while Cherobyl is latinized Russian.
what bout the laws of big bomb > tiny building? its not only about not being able to fail by itself, but the implications of human interference.
Then I say we have bigger problems than nuclear power plants. Any bomb that can break a nuclear plant enough to cause a harmful release of radionuclides can do horrendous amounts of damage elsewhere… like breaking a hydrodam upstream a major city… or pulverizing a concert/sports arena.
/Michael
Pyro, I am not sure where MIT has gotten the 1/10 000 number from(and I don’t feel like digging through the MIT site right now). But the safety assesments show that the risk of core damage is usualy on the order of 1/10 000 000 per reactor year. Check this document for instance that describes PSA results for the EPR
http://www.hse.gov.uk/newreactors/reports/eprpsa.pdf
Core damage itself doesnt have to have any impact outside the containment, so the risk of having a accident that effects the general population is much lower than that. I.e its smaller than the risk of earth being struck by the next dinosaur killer asteroid/comet.