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Author: Johan

Status i Fukushima?

De senaste dagarna har det mullrats lite i bloggvärlden om Fukushima, speciellt hos Cornucopia. Så låt oss kika på situationen lite. Först så cirkulerar påståenden om att vattnet kokar igen i reaktor 2 baserade på termometervärden som TEPCO publicerat här(länk).

 

 

Mätare TE-116-14L#1 och TE-116-14L#2 visar båda starkt ökande trender. Om man kikar i samma rapport några sidor före så ser man en schematisk överblick över vars mätarna ligger. Jag har en pil som pekar mot platsen på reaktorn och jag har ringat in de aktuella mätarna i listan till höger. Bilden blir lite komprimerad här i bloggposten så klicka på den för att se bättre.

 

 

Färgkodningen av mätarna betyder detta (japanska kört genom google translate).

Blå = (Can be used to monitor) to be evaluated: blue
Grön = (Used for reference) to be evaluated: green character
Röd = Deficit: target of evaluation (failure after the accident ())

Båda mätarna TE-116-14L#1 och TE-116-14L#2 är blå så TEPCO har inte flaggat dom som trasiga.

Det handlar alltså om två mätare som sitter någonstans just under ytan där tanklocket placeras (RPV BELLOWS SEAL AREA som det står i rapporten). Vi ser också att det finns gott om blåa mätare där, förutom de två ovannämnda så har vi TE-16-114M#1, TE-16-114M#2, TE-16-114N#1, TE-16-114N#2 och TE-16-114R#2. Om man går tillbaka till grafen över temperaturer så har jag markerat vilka linjer som hör till de mätarna. Man ser alltså att av 7 mätare i samma region så sticker två stycken iväg medan resterande 5 inte går upp alls. Kom ihåg att det här är mätare som inte någonsin var konstruerade för att i flera dagar badas i kokande saltvatten samtidigt som de angrips av alla tänkbara korrosiva ämnen som släppts ut ur bränslet under härdsmältans gång. TEPCO har inte flaggat dom som trasiga ännu, men uppe där mätarna är placerade finns inget bränsle. Det finns ingenting som kan generera värme, det enda som kan hända är att det kokar i botten på reaktorn och varm ånga stiger och värmer de två mätarna. Men då hade man sett en värmande trend på alla andra mätare uppe i den regionen plus att man skulle se det på alla mätare i botten.  Hur ser det ut i botten då? Så här (TE-2-3-69H2/3 och TE-2-3-69F2)

Den 18onde och 19onde så händer absolut ingenting. Om man läser fotnoten på den bilden så ser man att de exkluderat en mätare (TE-2-3-69F3) som faktiskt satt i botten. Med den inkluderat så såg det ut såhär.

Aha säger väll alla som vill växla till panikväxeln, temperaturen steg faktiskt i botten. Men sanningen är snarare den att vi har konsekvent sett att temperaturmätare som går sönder först visar en stegrande temperaturutveckling som man inte kan se någon annan stans. TE-2-3-69F3 är exempel på det och TEPCO lär nog meddela samma sak för TE-116-14L#1 och TE-116-14L#2. Vi har tidigare även sett med andra mätare(Will Davis har skrivit om det länk 1, länk 2).

Att från förmodligen trasiga termometrar hävda att Tokyo planeras att evakueras verkar väldigt långsökt. Speciellt med tanken på vars termometrarna är placerade och på vilket beteende tidigare termometrar uppvisat när de går sönder. Det tar bara några minuter med TEPCO’s dokument så kan man inse hur långsökt det är.

Men vad händer ifall en del av reaktor faktiskt överstiger 100 grader? Inte mycket! Alla lättflyktiga radioaktiva ämnen är sedan länge lösta i vattnet. Om en isolerad region blir väldigt varm så spelar det ingen som helst roll, så länge man kan kyla tanken och inneslutningen i stort. Kom ihåg hur många mätare TEPCO har i tanken, i inneslutningen och kopplat till vattencirkulationen etc. Om något håller på att gå helt åt skogen så kommer de få indikationer på det långt i förväg! Att någon liten region kan uppnå höga temperaturer är inte alls osannolikt, det är omöjligt att säga om alla delar av härden nu är i en lätt kylbar geometri eller inte.

Det andra som vi borde nämna är påståendet att Fukushima 2 är bortom all räddning eftersom dosraten inuti inneslutningen är 73 Sv/timme. Ärligt talat nu, vad annat kan man förvänta sig inuti en inneslutning där en stor del av härden runnit ner på golvet? Ser man tex på våra gamla inlägg, exempelvis detta, så var dosraterna i 2ans wetwell uppe i närmare 150 Sv/timme och i drywell runt 20 Sv/timme.  Det är förövrigt, om man ska vara petig, lite märkligt att tala om Sievert i detta sammanhanget då Sievert är ett viktat mått på en stråldos “farlighet” för människor. En robot eller ett mätinstrument kan inte få en stråldos i Sievert, enheten är helt meningslös i det sammanhanget. Man ska prata om Gray vilket helt enkelt är joule/kg. Slut på petitessen.

Visst är det ett problem att elektronisk utrustning går sönder när man kör in det i en sådan miljö. Men är det ett oöverkomligt problem? Nej! Man har redan idag många exempel på elektronisk utrustning som kan hantera sådana miljöer. Rymdsonder som utforskar Jupiters månar är ett utmärkt exempel. Satelliter i närheten av Io får runt 1000 Gray per dag och är designade för att kunna klara 1500 gray och vanliga satelliter i omloppsbana runt jorden måste kunna klara solstormar som levererar 100 gray. Io sonden motsvarar nästan ett dygn inuti Fukushima 2 inneslutningen. Är reaktor 2 då bortom räddning? Nej givetvis inte, dels så behöver man bara se till att vattnet fortsätter flöda in där så att smältan hälls kyld och dels ha en sluten loop för vattnet så man inte sprider aktivitet bortom inneslutningen. Om åtgärder behövs för att hålla igång vattnet så lär det vara utanför inneslutningen, inte inuti. In i inneslutningen vill man mest för att kunna kika och se vad för status härdarna egentligne har. Att hålla igång vattnet verkar TEPCO klara och det finns ingen anledning till varför de inte ska kunna fortsätta med det. Vattennivån i inneslutningen är lägre än man väntat sig, men det är inte samma sak som att säga att TEPCO är okapabla att höja nivån om de anser det nödvändigt!

 

 

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Utmaning till kärnkraftsmotståndare

Translation of the earlier post to Swedish

Det har alltid förbryllad mig (och jag tror att jag kan tala för oss alla inom NPYP) att någon kan vara anti mot någon energikälla. Anta till exempel att någon säger sig vara anti-kemisk energi, då skulle den logiska uppföljningsfrågan förstås vara “vilken typ av kemisk energi?”. Helt enkelt eftersom det finns så många olika sätt man kan utvinna kemisk energi på, allt från att elda kodynga i hyddor till förbränningen av bensin i din bilmotorn till högteknologiska gasturbiner till dynamit. Snubben som yttrade påståendet har antagligen inte ens tänkt på de distinktionerna när han gjorde sitt uttalande. Men låt oss säga att han funderar lite grann och specificerar att han är anti-kol. Även detta uttalande kan ifrågasättas. Uttalandet måste följas av en hel del villkor för annars är det idiotiskt. Om han är anti-kol på grund av luftföroreningar, borde han då inte ändra sig om man blir kvitt föroreningarna? Om någon utvecklar ett filter som minskar utsläppen till obetydliga nivåer, är kol då ok enligt honom? Logiskt sett borde han tycka det. Om han är anti-kol på grund av den oerhört destruktiva kolbrytning, skulle han ändra sig om miljövänligare brytningsmetoder utvecklades? Killen är förmodligen egentligen “anti luftföroreningar” eller” anti smutsiga gruvor”, inte anti kemisk energi eller anti kol. Han har bara aldrig brytt sig om att försöka specificera eller förstå vad för egenskaper hos kemisk energi han egentligen motsätter sig.

Detsamma kan sägas om vilken energikälla som helst, det finns det ingen rationell anledning att vara emot en energikälla i sig, snarare är man emot en viss oönskad effekt som uppkommer på grund av den nuvarande tillämpningen av en energikälla. Vi NPYPare är inga kolfantaster, men jag vågar svära på att om det fanns bra lösningar på problemen med kol, då skulle vi inte motsätta oss dess användning. Det finns ingen anledning att vara mot bruket av en energikälla om dess problem har lösts.

Fördelen med att gräva djupt och ange exakt vad man egentligen motsätter sig är väldigt konstruktivt, för det öppnar upp möjligheten att söka efter lösningar! Om någon bara säger att de är anti vindkraft så dör diskussionen ganska snabbt utan att ha kommit någonvart. Om personen i stället anger att buller från vindkraftverk är problemet, då kan diskussionen svänga in på möjliga lösningar för att minska buller. Alla vinner på det! Det finns ingen anledning att vara fruktansvärt känslomässig och klamra sig fast vid en “anti-något” idé så hårt att man blockerar alla slags givande diskussioner och blundar för lösningar.

Det viktigaste att diskutera är alltså vilka egenskaper hos en viss energikälla som gör att du motsätter dig den och och hur den kan förbättras så att du inte längre har några invändningar. Det mest frustrerande med kärnenergidebatten är att man aldrig tycks nå den punkten. Fråga ledande miljöaktivister den frågan och de kommer att häva ur sig 58 olika ursäkter utan att vara det minsta intresserade av eventuella lösningar.

Om någon är mot kärnkraft på grund av avfallsproblem så säger vi “Ok, men vad menar du exakt med avfallsproblemet och vad är det med avfallet som du anser vara så destruktivt?” Om du besväras av möjligheten att avfallet kommer att skada framtida generationer så kan vi börja diskutera hur man säkert kan förvara eller förstöra avfallet. Om du är anti kärnkraft eftersom du besväras av säkerheten, då är vår motfråga “hur säkert är säkert nog och hur ska vi uppnå det?”. Uppenbarligen måste det finnas en nivå där en verksamhet anses vara tillräckligt säker, annars skulle personen i fråga aldrig kliva ur sängen och gå till duschen av rädsla för att halka och dö.

Men diskussionen slutar alltid som sagt innan den nått denna punkt. “Anti-personer” verkar i regel aldrig vara intresserade av lösningar på de problem de nämner och för det mesta kan de inte ens specificera vad problemet är från första början. Det gäller inte bara för kärnkraftsdebatten, man ser precis samma tendenser i alla typer av diskussioner där det finns en tydlig anti-sida. Anti genteknik, anti bilar, anti kött, anti utforskning av rymden, anti vad som helst! Det verkar vara väldigt svårt för människor att släppa den trygga känslomässiga bindning som uppkommer när man är kraftigt mot något och istället inleda en meningsfull diskussion om problemen och lösningar. Det är alltför lätt att bara vara emot något, det är väldigt mycket svårare att faktiskt söka lösningar!

Så för att försöka vrida kärnenergidebatten i en mer givande riktning så skulle det vara fantastiskt om några kärnkraftsmotståndarna kunde ange vilka villkor kärnkraft måste uppfylla för att vara en godtagbar energikälla. Tro det eller ej så har även vi sådana villkor. Jag tror till exempel inte att någon av oss vill se fler RBMK byggas (den typ av reaktorn som Tjernobyl tillhörde) och personligen har jag ganska högt ställda krav på hur kärnenergi ska utvecklas på lite längre sikt för att vara en acceptabel energikälla. Jag är inte anti kärnkraft, men jag är verkligen anti mot vissa sätt att utvinna kärnenergi.

För att sammanfatta utmaningen:

Vilka villkor måste kärnkraften uppfylla för att du ska godta kärnkraften som en acceptabel energikälla?

 

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Examining some old Fukushima news

An old news article is circulating around that states that 68 tons of fuel has melted in reactor number 1 and that it was close to breaching the bottom of the containment. The article is several months old but for some reason I have seen it pop up again on facebook so I though it is worth examining the article briefly. In particular I want to examine this statement.

Only 37 centimeters of concrete remains between the fuel and the vessel’s outermost steel wall in the most damaged area, TEPCO said.

This wording is repeatedly used by anti nuclear sources to imply that a much worse disaster was very close to happening. What the articles fail to mention however is that there is A LOT more concrete between the ground and the molten core. The reactor building itself is a very thick concrete structure. Will Davis, on his excellent blog Atomic Power Review, talked about this the first time the news about the number one vessel failure showed up last November. Some of what he wrote is worth repeating and I hope he doesn’t mind me repeating it here and also posting a picture from his blog.

The NHK report indicates a melt depth of about 2.1 feet(64 cm, my note /Johan). The distance to the ground is roughly eighteen times this depth from the dry well interior floor to grade. Below is a drawing from WASH-1082 which I’ve marked to show the distance from the dry well floor to the grade outside, which on the particular plant shown is 39′ 0″(11.8 meters, my note /Johan). I do not presently know the exact measurement at Fukushima Daiichi No. 1 but it is likely within ten percent of this measurement… meaning that in the worst case that TEPCO is describing, by its own data, the core material may have melted only about as much as 5% of the distance to the grade.

I encourage everyone to read the rest of his blog as it is by far the best information source for the Fukushima accident.

 

I also want to add this picture of the mark I containment that schematically shows the thick concrete even more clearly! Picture found at the blog “The capacity factor”.

So we see that there is a tremendous amount of concrete below the shell of the containment structure. The hints and suggestions that the core would only have to melt another 37 centimeters for a unnamed disaster to take place is obviously false. In reality the shell of the containment is integrated into a thick concrete structure and the molten core would have to melt through several more meters, likely around 10 meters, to get out of the reactor building itself.

The cleanup of the containment is going to be a very hard and messy job, much worse than the cleanup of TMI was. But the core is still a long long way from the ground.

 

/Johan

 

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Challenge to nuclear opponents

It has always mystified me (and I think I can speak for all of us in NPYP) that someone can be anti-something when it comes to energy. Lets suppose for instance that someone declares himself to be anti-chemical energy, the logical follow up question to the fellow would of course be “what kind of chemical energy?”. The question is logical because there are so many different ways one can extract chemical energy, everything from burning cow dung in huts to the engine in your car to high tech gas turbines to dynamite. Our friend there probably didn’t even think of those distinctions when he made his statement, but what if he did? Let’s say he rebukes by stating he really means that he is anti coal. Even that statement can be challenged, it must by necessity be conditional otherwise it is moronic. If he is anti coal because of air pollution, then would he change his mind if there was a solution to the pollution? If someone developed a filter that reduced pollution levels to insignificant amount is fossil fuels then ok? Logically he should think so. If he is anti coal because of the immensely destructive coal mining, would he change his mind if environmentally sound mining practices where developed? The guy is presumably actually anti air pollution or anti dirty mines, not anti chemical energy or anti coal. He just never bothered to go through the chain of reasoning to understand what he really opposes in chemical energy.

Same can be said of any energy source, there is no rational reason to be against the energy source itself, rather one is against some undesirable effect due to the present application of the energy source. NPYP are not fans of coal by any means, but I dare say that if there was solid solutions to its problems, then none of us would oppose its use. There just isn’t any justifiable reason to oppose it if the problems are solved. There is no other way to rationally look at energy production.

The advantage with digging deep and specifying exactly what one is actually opposed to means opening up to the possibility of finding solutions! If someone simply state that they are anti windmills then the discussion pretty much ends right there. If the person instead states that the noise from windmills is disturbing then the discussion can turn to possible solutions to reduce noise. Everyone wins on that! There is no reason to be horribly emotional about the whole thing and cling to an anti-something idea so hard that one blocks any fruitful discussion and becomes blind to solutions.

A discussion goes no where until one gets to the core of the argument, which is, what properties of a specific energy source makes you oppose it and and how can it be improved so you no longer oppose it?

The frustrating thing in the nuclear debate is that the discussion never seems to reach that point. Ask leading environmentalists that exact question and they will squirm like a worm on a hook.

If someone specifies that they are opposed to nuclear energy due to the waste problem. Fine we say, but what exactly do you mean by the waste problem and what effect does the waste have that you find repulsive? If you are bothered by the possibility that the waste will hurt future generations, then lets discuss how to safely dispose of the waste. If you are anti nuclear because you are bothered by the safety of nuclear installations, then specify what level of safety is safe enough (obviously there must be a level where an activity is considered safe enough, otherwise the person in question would never get out of bed to shower for fear of slipping and dying) and lets discuss how to reach that.

But the discussion always ends before reaching that point because the “anti person” generally never  seems to be interested in solutions to the posed problems and they are usually not even able to state clearly why they consider the issue as a problem in the first place. This is not only valid for the nuclear debate, one sees the same tendencies in all kinds of discussion where there is a clear anti side. Anti genetic engineering, anti cars, anti meat, anti space exploration, you name it! It seems very hard for people to go past the simple emotional attachment of being against something and instead engage into a meaningful discussion about the issues. It is too easy to just be opposed to something, it is damned much harder to actually find solutions.

So to move the nuclear discussion into a more fruitful direction it would be enlightening if some nuclear opponents could specify what conditions nuclear would have to fulfill to be an acceptable energy source. Believe it or not even we have such conditions. I don’t think for instance anyone in NPYP wants to see more RBMK reactors built (the type of reactor at the Chernobyl plant) and just to speak for myself I have quite strict demands on what nuclear energy should be in the long run to be an acceptable energy source. I am not anti nuclear, but I am certainly anti towards some ways of extracting nuclear energy.

To summaries and to state the challenge again clearly.

 

What conditions would have to be fulfilled for you to consider nuclear an acceptable energy source?

 

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The world has forgotten the real victims of Fukushima

I just had to make a quick post about this excellent article.

The world has forgotten the real victims of Fukushima

It was at this point, at around day three, that I realised that something had gone seriously wrong with the reporting of the biggest natural disaster to hit a major industrialised nation for a century. We had forgotten the real victims, the 20,000-and-counting Japanese people killed, in favour of a nuclear scare story.

/Johan

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Weekend reading

Activity is not very high here lately so I though I would provide you all with some nice weekend reading material.

First is the article “Energy as the ultimate raw material” by the nuclear energy pioneer Alvin Weinberg. Weinberg used to think of the big picture and this article showcases that. He outlines a few approaches to a asymptotic state of civilization, a state where humanity is using resources at a rate that is practically infinitely sustainable. In such a state humanity uses a lot of energy in order to produce the necessary raw materials from common rock, seawater etc.The article is from 1959 but well worth reading even today.

The second article is a blog post from Will Davis over at Atomic Power Review, “Vogtle COL approval vote indicates perspective on “nuclear renaissance”. I selected it because in it Will describes some the various reactors that where developed during the first decades of nuclear energy. In my opinion it speaks volumes of how restricted the view of nuclear energy has become, nuclear power today is pretty much identical to light water reactors, but that is just a fluke of history and some day tinkering with other designs will charge on at full speed again.

As the third article I give you Gismags “Feature: Small modular nuclear reactors – the future of energy?”. Aside from a few glaring technical errors or statements that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, it gives a good overview of the developments going on with small modular reactors.

I also end the post with a small section from Freeman Dysons book “Disturbing the universe”. A fantastic book by a fantastic scientist! Any spelling errors are mine since I wrote out the paragraphs below.

The fundamental problem of the nuclear power industry is not reactor safety, not waste disposal, not the dangers of nuclear proliferation, real though all these problems are. The fundamental problem of the industry is that nobody any longer has any fun building reactors. It is inconceivable under present conditions that a group of enthusiast could assemble in a schoolhouse and design, build, test, license and sell a reactor within three years. Sometime between 1960 and 1970, the fun went out of the business.

The adventurers, the experimenters, the inventors, were driven out, and the accountants and managers took control. Not only in the private industry but also in the government laboratories, at Los Alamos, Livermore, Oak Ridge and Argonne, the groups of bright young people who used to build and invent and experiment with a great variety of reactors where disbanded. The accountants and managers decided that it was not cost effective to let bright people play with weird reactors. So the weird reactors disappeared and with them the chance of any radical improvement beyond our existing systems.

We are left with a very small number of reactor types in operation, each of them frozen into a huge bureaucratic organization that makes any substantial change impossible, each of them in various ways technically unsatisfactory, each of them less safe than many possible alternative designs which have been discarded. Nobody builds reactors for fun anymore. The spirit of the little red schoolhouse is dead. That, in my opinion, is what went wrong with nuclear power.

– Freeman Dyson

 

/Johan

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Nuclear history: Part 1 – The nuclear rocket that never flew

 

Back when the cold war was still hot, and everyone was searching for communists in the closet, nuclear was still fresh and awe inspiring. The fascination with everything nuclear spawned a tremendous variety of projects and ideas to realize the full potential of nuclear energy and find out its utility in many different applications. When looking back at those projects in this age, after being born into a “precautionary principle” ruled society, some of the ideas might seem like utter madness or amazing brilliance. Pretty much without exception all those projects involved solid engineering and the scientists back then dared to think big, really really big. It is fascinating to look back at those days and realise how many times the world was within centimeters of big revolutions in energy production or space travel. Many of the projects share the same depressing end, getting shut down by political, rather than technical, reasons. Thinking big might not be fashionable anymore in the west, but it will never cease to be educational and it gives hope for what we can accomplish in this century. That is why I will dedicate some time to write a series of “Nuclear History” blog posts that looks into the crazy, the fascinating and the plain ingenious projects of the first nuclear era. A maths warning is in its place, I will not be afraid to throw in equations into the blog posts if I feel it will explain something better than words. I am using MathJax to write the equations and it might not display properly if you read this through a RSS feed, in that case just jump to the blog. If you are put off by equations just skip them and read the text and graphs, they should be self explanatory anyway.

This first post will be about one of my favorites, the fission rocket!

Let us start back in the 50’s. In 1954 the first nuclear powered submarine, USS Nautilus, was launched into the seas and the development of a nuclear jet engine for bomber planes were under way. The grand space race had just started and it was only natural to ask what part nuclear energy could play. In 1955 the Atomic Energy Commission and the US Air Force got together and started the Rover program, the original goal of the program was to create a nuclear driven ICBM. Parallel to this a project called Pluto was started with the goal of creating a nuclear driven ramjet for a cruise missile that could potentially cruise for months on end carrying a large arsenal of nuclear weapons. Both programs where hedges against the possibility that conventional (chemical rocket driven) ICBM’s might not work as well as was hoped. After the success of traditional chemical ICBM’s in the end of the 50’s and beginning of the 60’s project Pluto became redundant and was cancelled (one must also mention that it was so dirty that one could have ignored weaponizing it and just letting it fly low over cities and the radiation from the darn thing would take care of business). Project Rover was left in a position where its military value was diminished but the possibility of a nuclear rocket was still intriguing. Therefor Rover was handed over from the Air Force to the Space Nuclear Propulsion Office (SNPO) which was a collaboration between NASA and ACE started in 1961. Rover continued as the development program for the rocket itself, regardless of what end use it would have, and a new program called NERVA (Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application) was started to examine the utilization of the Rover rockets for civilian space exploration. I will a bit sloppily refer to both projects as NERVA.

But before we look into the developments that took place in those two programs, lets stop for a moment and ask what advantage does nuclear energy have in space exploration? After Gagarins first flight into space in 1961 it became blatantly obvious that it was possible to put people in space with chemical rockets, so why even bother with nuclear rocket? Was it simply because nuclear was the cool kid on the block? The traditional rocket engineers certainly did not want anything to do with nuclear, they understood chemicals perfectly well, thank you very much! The nuclear engineers on their side was equally oblivious to the demands of space flight.

The match between space and nuclear isn’t obvious until one starts to look into what is really important for good rocket performance. There are two key parameters that rule supreme, thrust and specific impulse. Thrust is just what it sounds like, the force the rocket is producing, good old fashion Newton’s second and and third laws (for those who have forgotten, the first law is force equals mass times acceleration and the second law is, every action has an equal and opposite reaction). You need a hell of a lot of thrust to overcome Earths gravity well! Specific impulse is a bit more complicated, it is a measure of the efficiency of a rocket engine. It tells you how much mass a rocket needs to expel in order to achieve a certain amount of velocity. In space the only mass you have to play with is the mass you bring and the only way to gain velocity is to throw some mass in the opposite direction of where you want to go. The less mass you need to bring to achieve a certain velocity the cheaper it is to send that bloody thing into orbit. Impulse is just another word for momentum (force) and specific impulse is the momentum gained per unit mass of propellant expelled. Total impulse given by the propellant to the rocket is just the mass of the propellant times the effective exhaust velocity of the propellant. If we assume constant thrust and constant exhaust velocity we can get the specific impulse by dividing the total impulse with the total propellant mass and all that is left is the effective exhaust velocity.

$$I_{sp}= \frac{\int F dt} {m} = \frac{\int \frac{dM}{dt} V_e dt}{m} =\frac{MV_e}{M} = V_e$$

Where:
$$I_{sp}$$ = specific impulse
F = Force
$$V_e$$ = effective exhaust velocity
M = total propellant mass

Now that is a lot of word simply to state that exhaust velocity is important. I go through all of this to explain the concept of specific impulse since it is a term one never gets away from when reading about rockets. Sometimes specific impulse isn’t defined as above either, but it preserves its importance. In another definition, for some reason I don’t understand at all (after all I am only a physicist and not a rocket scientist), specific impulse is often defined per propellant unit of weight (on Earth) instead of unit of mass. The strict definition of weight is the force a mass experiences in a gravitational field. A scale doesn’t really measure your mass in kilos, it measures your weight in Newtons! Using that one then ends up with a definition if specific impulse that looks like this.

$$I_{sp} = \frac{V_e}{g_o}$$
Where:
$$g_0$$ = gravitational acceleration at earths surface (9.81 m/s^2)

In the first definition specific impulse has the unit of velocity, m/s, and in the second definition it has the unit seconds. So if you see people talking about specific impulse of this and that many seconds you know the reason. I explain this because I will consistently use the second definition of specific impulse from now on due to the fact that it is more common to find tables in units of seconds.

Now to realise why specific impulse is important lets have a look at the famous rocket equation formulated by Tsiolkovsky. This equation tells you how much velocity a rocket will gain from a given amount of propellant with a certain exhaust velocity.

$$\Delta V=V_e*Ln(\frac{M0}{M0+Mr}) = I_{sp}*g_0*Ln(\frac{M0}{M0+Mr})$$
Where:
$$\Delta V$$ = the speed given to the rocket
$$V_e$$ = rocket exhaust velocity
$$M_0$$ = Rocket mass without propellant
$$M_r$$ = propellant mass
$$g_0$$ = Gravitational acceleration at the earth surface

The higher the specific impulse the higher the $$\Delta V$$, that much is obvious. Looking at the masses involved is even more enlightening. So lets breaks out the $$M_r$$ term from the last equation and we get:

$$M_r = M_0*[e^{\frac{\Delta V}{I_{sp}*g_0}}-1] $$ = $$M_0[e^{\frac{\Delta V}{V_e}}-1]$$

Lets plot this function! Lets assume we want to go from low earth orbit to orbit around the moon. This will require a $$\Delta V$$ somewhere in the neighborhood of 4000 m/s (to get into low earth orbit in the first place one needs about 10 000 m/s, but lets assume we are already there). Lets also assume we want to deliver about 55 tons of material there. That is about the weight of the Apollo command module plus the lunar lander module plus the empty weight of the S-IVB last stage of the Saturn V rocket. This will give the resulting plot with Isp’s ranging from 100 to 1000 seconds (exhaust velocities of 981 m/s to 9810 m/s).


There are two blue X drawn on the plot. The first X is drawn at the $$I_{sp}$$ value 475, this happens to be the specific impulse that the third stage of the Saturn V rocket had, the part of the rocket that was supposed to give the final $$\Delta V$$ to go to the moon. It turns out that the reaction mass according to the plot above for $$I_{sp}$$ = 475 is 75 metric tons. In reality the S-IVB burned about 80 tons of fuel to reach the moon, so we are playing in the correct order of magnitude here! What about the second X drawn with a $$I_{sp}$$ of 925? To jump forward a bit in time, that happens to be the $$I_{sp}$$ of the final NERVA design, how much reaction mass does that correspond to? 30 tons! Less than half of the S-IVB, a dramatic reduction and a potential cost saver!

To show an even larger advantage for the nuclear rocket, lets look at missions requiring higher $$\Delta V$$. In the figure below I have plotted the reaction masses needed given an $$I_{sp}$$ of either 475 or 925 seconds. At the far right end of the graph one can see the propulsion mass needed to deliver 550 tons from Earth to landing on Mars.

 

For the nuclear rocket one would need a propellant mass of about 1200 tons while the chemical rocket needs 4900 tons. Given that the weight to launch something into low earth orbit right now is over 2000 US dollars per kg the cost saving on mass alone is close to 7.4 billions! To be fair to the chemical case, the cost to get things into orbit might be cut by a factor of 10 within the foreseeable future (if space x manages to make a reusable rocket), but even in such an optimistic case the potential cost saving might be close to one billion dollars.

The above plots shows why a nuclear rocket is desirable, but it doesn’t explain why a nuclear rocket performs so much better compared to chemical rockets. Why does a nuclear rocket have a much higher $$I_{sp}$$ ? Lets first consider how a chemical rocket works, in a chemical rocket the energy source and the reaction mass is one and the same. You mix two chemicals, they explode in a semi controlled fashion and the resultant products are sprayed out through the rocket nozzle and creates thrust. A common example of liquid rocket fuel is hydrogen and oxygen. There is also examples of solid fuels, the boosters for the space shuttle is one example that uses some kind of aluminum mixture. The chemical reaction heats the reaction products and throws them out of the rocket with a certain velocity. Temperature of a gas is proportional to the average energy of the gas molecules and energy is simply $$E=\frac{mV^2}{2}$$. Velocity of the particles are then $$V=\sqrt{2E/m}$$ and we instantly see that the smaller the mass, with a given temperature, the higher the particle velocity. Ideally, whatever we heat up, we want it to to be made of as light a particle as possible. In chemical rockets we don’t really have the luxury of choice, the reactions that gives the most energy doesn’t necessarily also give the reaction products with the smallest masses. The smallest possible mass is the hydrogen atom since it is the lightest element. The hydrogen + oxygen reaction is one of the most energetic chemical reactions, but the product of the reaction, water molecules, is 18 times heavier than the hydrogen atom. A heated hydrogen gas with the same temperature as a heated water gas will have a velocity more than 4 times higher.

A chemical rocket will never have the ideal propellant due to the fact that one has to introduce other compounds since the energy is generated by the compounds themselves. To have the ideal propellant the energy production has to be separate from the propellant. This is where a nuclear reactor finally enters the picture. If the heat source is nuclear fuel rods and the propellant is hydrogen heated by flowing over the rods. Then one can indeed get a pure flow of hydrogen out of the rocket. In that way one can maximise the $$I_{sp}$$ from the energy produced. Why can’t one do this with chemicals, may be by having some kind of contained chemical that produces heat that is transferred to a pure hydrogen gas? It is due to the fact that chemical reaction releases so little energy compared to nuclear reactions, this means the mass of the chemicals needed for the reaction would be as large or larger than the mass of the propellant. Fission however releases about a million times more energy from the same amount of mass compared to a chemical energy source. The energy required to put the space shuttle in orbit, of the order of $$10^{13}$$ joules, is contained in such a petty amount as roughly 100 grams of uranium. With fission it becomes feasible to separate the energy production from the propellant without having the energy production part being to massive. We can then have a rocket that runs with the same temperature as the best chemical rockets but have 4 time the $$I_{sp}$$ .

In reality everything isn’t quite so rosy, one can not expect to put 100 grams of uranium togheter with some hydrogen into a rocket and easily get a $$I_{sp}$$ that is 4 times higher than the space shuttle rocket. The $$I_{sp}$$ will rather be a bit more than double because hydrogen atoms form H2 molecules and thus the specific weight of the propellant is only one ninth of the weight of water. Hydrogen needs to be heated to over 5000 degrees Celsius before it forms free hydrogen atoms. Also a full reactor weights significantly more than 100 grams of uranium, even if only 100 grams needs to be fissioned to produce the total energy, one still needs a hefty amount of uranium for the reactor to go critical in the first place.

But even taking into accounts those pessimistic facts the nuclear rocket is still very promising. This first part of the series is already long enough. So lets save the fun stuff for the next part. Then we will look at what kind of things they actually built during the NERVA program and the basis for the reactor designs!

Johan

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Good news of 2011 in review

2011 was in many ways a depressing year for nuclear energy. The Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami that caused the Fukushima accident changed many things. Germany’s political leaders went into unreasonable panic and Merkel immediately ordered the shut down of 10 reactors and soon followed that up by a decision to reinstate the previous nuclear phase out plans. With a bit of humor one can state that the Japanese Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami permanently shut down more reactors in Germany than it did in Japan. Switzerland also decided on a phase out plan that is in many ways similar to the phase out plan Sweden was following for many years. Maby the swiss will look at Sweden and learn how badly it worked, only time will tell. Fukushima also temporarily put a break on the rapid nuclear build in China and the future of nuclear in Japan is very unsure.

But this blog post is not about the bad things that happened in 2011, instead we will look at the good things that happened! Here comes a partial list of things that makes us all raise our glasses in cheers of a promising future.

The biggest good news is the rationality that most countries showed after the Fukushima accident. Germany’s panic didn’t spread and most countries that had plans to expand, renew or start a new nuclear fleet has publicly stated they will stick to the plans. In China, without a doubt the most important country for new nuclear projects, their ambitious program has only been downsized slightly and the focus has been shifted towards generation 3 reactors like AP1000 rather than the indigenous generation 2 designs. Plans in the US seems to be going straight ahead after the recent approval by NRC of the AP1000 design and the developing countries are one by one embracing nuclear as a clean and safe energy source for the future. We applaud the maturity most government have shown despite the, at times, ridiculous media coverage.

The year has been an exciting one for small modular reactors (reactors with an electric power less than 300 MW). NuScale was brought back from the brink of bankruptcy by an hefty investment from the engineering company Flour, one of the largest engineering firms in the US. The NuScale design is quite interesting and innovative and I encourage everyone to check out their homepage and have a look. Babcock and Wilcox and their 125MWe mPower design seems to be steaming on right ahead with a cooperation announced with TVA to build 6 reactors at their Clinch river site. The first unit is supposed to be constructed by 2020 and we hope that ambitious time plan will hold up. All depends on the ponderous NRC review process.

B&W’s mPower within its containment structure

Westinghouse doesn’t want to be left in the dust on the small modular market and they presented their own design this year, abandoning their earlier IRIS modular project. The new small reactor is about double the size of mPower at 225 MWe. The whole reactor will be sited underground (a common feature of many small modular reactors) and construction time is projected to be 18 months.

China, not surprisingly, also has a modular PWR in the works, a 100-150MWe design, I haven’t read much about it but it is going to be an interesting fight on what modular PWR will hit the market first. If I was to make a bet then I bet on the Chinese, due to the slow pace of NRC. But mPower sure looks promising and B&W has long experience with submarine reactors which should speed up their development process significantly.

All modular reactors however aren’t light water reactors. There are also several generation 4 designs in the works and news have popped up on several of the during 2011. Bill Gates have several time made the news discussing the traveling wave reactor concept that is being developed by Terrapower, with Gates as one of the biggest investors. The latest information is that Gates was in talks with China about the reactor. The traveling wave concept is a cool one, the basic idea is that one has a fairly large core where most of it is subcritical and composed out of depleted uranium. In the center, or at one edge of the core depending on design, one “ignites” the core with a load of highly enrichment uranium. The area closest to the critical zone will slowly get it is depleted uranium converted to plutonium and become critical while the starting critical zone slowly gets depleted.  The whole thing is a fast spectrum reactor with liquid metal coolant so it is capable of breeding. In this fashion a criticality wave travels through the reactor over a time span of say 50 years, continuously producing power. The appeal of the design is that one can basically bury the whole thing, push the on button and then walk away and let it produce power for decades without any need for refueling or major maintenance. The reactor is still in the basic design stage at this point in time and god knows what roadblocks Terrapower will stumble upon. But it is very heartening to see a man like Gates involved and if China gets interesting things can move on quickly.

When talking about China, China is already building a generation 4 modular reactor, the Chinese version of the pebble bed reactor. I worked for a year with Pebble bed reactors and it is a very interesting type of reactor. They don’t have the high fuel utilization of fast breeders but they have plenty of other perks, most of all it’s passive safety. A pebble bed reactor is as close to idiot proof as even the most gifted idiot can imagine. The fuel in a pebble bed reactor consists of tiny particles of uranium surrounded by thin but extraordinarily sturdy layers of silicon carbide and pyrolytic carbon. All these particles is compressed into a ball together with a bunch of graphite and this ball is then surrounded by another layer of graphite to make a pebble about the size of a tennis ball. To fuel the reactor one throws in a whole bunch of these balls into a cylinder that is made out of even more graphite. The whole thing is cooled by blowing Helium through it. What makes this reactor so safe is the thermal intertia of the whole system, the extreme durability of the fuel particles and the very strong negative feedback.

If the temperature of the reactor goes up all the neutrons getting slowed down in the graphite will get slowed down slightly less, this makes fission a bit less probably for each time a neutron hits a uranium atom and the fission chain reaction dies. However we all know that even though fission has ceased, heat is still being generated by decay products and this is where the thermal inertia comes into play. The reactor is pretty much a immense volume of graphite with some fuel particles in there. All that graphite can soak up huge amounts of heat and the whole core is very large in size so there is a lot of surface area to radiate away the heat. Combined this means that even if the cooling systems fail completely the equilibrium temperature of the system, due to decay heat production, will be far less than the temperature required to compromise the fuel particles. One can pull out all the control rods, shut down the cooling systems, go for a 2 week vacation in the Maldives and then return to a intact and naturally shut down reactor. All that is needed to resume operation is to just turn on the cooling again. No damage to system, no catastrophic meltdown, no electric systems needed at all for emergency situations. If the Fukushima reactors, or Chernobyl, or TMI had been pebble beds nothing at all would have happened. Pebble bed reactors also has more versatility than light water reactors due to the fact that they produce much higher temperature heat. The massive industrial heat market then opens up for nuclear energy and it is a market that is larger than the electricity market. The Chinese pebble bed reactor is a potential game changer that one should follow carefully.

More exciting developments in China is the grid connection of Chinas fast experimental reactor. It is a tiny reactor at 20 MWe but it is a strong sign that China is not leaving any stone unturned in their strive for nuclear dominance. The follow up to this fast reactor will be the construction of two BN-800 fast sodium cooled reactors China is buying from Russia with planned construction start in 2013. All the talk of generation 4 reactors being sci-fi is obvious nonsense.

Perhaps the most intriguing news during 2011, at least to me, was the launch of a very high profile Chinese project to develop a molten salt reactor using a thorium fuel cycle. In 20 years they expect to have a commercial molten salt reactor running. So far China has been very secretive with any kind of details about the project. There are many ways to make a molten salt reactor and we are eagerly awaiting any information. But some industry insider information I have heard tells me the project is a big deal politically and already to big to be allowed to fail. I am greatly looking forward to finding out more about the project and reading the first papers they publish. One can only hope they won’t keep it all secret for long but the fact that they dont participate in the generation 4 cooperation regarding the molten salt reactor hints that they want to do this all by themself. The molten salt reactor is perhaps the most promising of all the generation 4 designs, it is however also the design with the most question marks attached to it.

A even more surprising development is the attempts by General Electric to launch their sodium cooled fast reactor design in Sweden and the UK. It is surprising because it shows a lot of confidence in their design and it would be very interesting if one got built in Europe. Sweden is an unlikely market since it would (unfortunately) not fit the general plan in Sweden to treat spent nuclear fuel as waste instead of a resource. For the same reason I doubt the idea will get approval in the UK, but one can always hope.

As far as waste goes developments are happening in Sweden. The company in charge of developing and building a repository (SKB) for the Swedish spent nuclear fuel has progressed to the point that they have handed in an application to start building the repository. If built this would be the first civilian repository in the world and the second repository in operation. The first repository in operation is the american Waste Isolation Pilot Plant that is used to store military transuranic waste (elements heavier than uranium). One can only hope that once the Swedish repository is in action the old mantra “there is no solution to the nuclear waste problem” by the anti nuclear crowd will finally be silenced. But they didn’t go silent after WIPP started so I guess that is to much to hope for. The swedish anti nuclear NGO’s like Naturskyddsföreningen and MKG are fighting SKB tooth and nail now when they are on the verge of loosing the waste fight. Spreading FUD wherever and whenever they can.

Those are a small selection of the good news from 2011 that I can remember of the top of my head. Many other things have of course happened, like the approval to build one more reactor in Finland and the developments in the Czech republic, Poland and many other countries. If I have missed some big happy news please let me know in the comments!

Hope all readers of this blog will get a splendid 2012!

Johan

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