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Category: Bad Science

Därför har långsiktig planering saknats i svensk kärnkraft – vad SVT undlät att nämna

Av Michael Karnerfors, 2001-01-04

4 januari 2010 visade SVT 2 programmet “Kärnkraftsfiaskot” av Jan Nylander om den svenska kärnkraftens två förlorade år 2009-2010. Programmet var välresearchat och korrekt i de sakuppgifter som presenterades. Dock måste konstateras att Jan Nylander grovt vinklade programmet i syfte att skapa upprördhet mot bolagen, och inte förrän i sista ordet, sekunden innan eftertexterna rullade, nämndes varför svensk kärnkraft under 2009 hade sämst leveranskapacitet i Europa: energipolitiken.

Detta är var vad SVT och Jan Nylander inte berättade för dig…

Som jag nämnt tidigare blir det ibland lite Monty Python över kärnkraftsdebatten. Den här gången är det Jan Nylander på SVT med programmet “Kärnkraftsfiaskot” som gör en klockren immitation av John Cleese i “Life of Brian”, när han menar att förutom den smällkalla vintern, djup ekonomisk kris, dåliga energipolitiska beslut, lågt vattenstånd i magasinen, felaktiga val av elkunderna, och att bolagen gjort en brakförlust på de krånglande kärnkraftsverken så är det enbart bolagens fel att din elräkning blev hög under tidigt 2010.


Well alright, fair enough. But apart from the…
(Video provided kind courtesy of Monty Python)

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We do not need nuclear power

By Michael Karnerfors, 2010-06-15

A common argument against nuclear power is this:

“We don’t actually need nuclear power, because we could potentially use other clean sources of energy”.

I am not going to argue against that particular statement, because it is true. We could potentially rid ourselves of nuclear power and have clean energy from other sources.

There are a few implications and practical matters that must be addressed though. So let’s take this kind of reasoning a few steps further. What other areas is this statement true for? What more could we potentially be without?

Not needed?
Do we actually need any of these?

2 Comments

“Nuclear power is unsafe because it’s so safe”. Wait… what?!

By Michael Karnerfors, 2009-11-04
This is an very unsafe stairway, because it is physically impossible for you to fall over the side and hurt yourself. Uhm... what?!
This is a very unsafe stairway, because it is physically impossible for you to fall over the side and hurt yourself. Uhm... what?!

(Image source)

Every now and then I come across (link in Swedish) the following argument against nuclear power:

“All the safety devices, procedures, regulation and supervision prove that nuclear power is unsafe.”

And it baffles me every time, because what that boils down to is someone saying something that means: “It’s unsafe because it’s so safe!”.

The (lack of) logic reasoning applied to something else, say a staircase, is exemplified thus:

– This staircase is unsafe, because it has a railing!

– How do you mean?

– Because if the railing wasn’t there, I could fall over the side and hurt myself.

– Yes but the railing is there to stop you from falling over the side and hurting yourself.

– Exactly, so the staircase is unsafe, because it needs the railing.

– But the railing is an integral part of the staircase now. Are you suggesting you can run right through a two inch thick stainless steel railing?

– Well if I could I’d fall over the side and hurt myself.

– So… can you make your way through stainless steel railing or not?

– That’s not the point! The point is that it needs the railing so it’s unsafe!

– Look, not only does it have the railing, but the railing is in turn stuck to a concrete wall that goes all the way up to the ceiling.

– Oh my!! Then it’s really unsafe if it has that much safety! Now I won’t got near that damned thing because I just know I’ll fall over the side and hurt myself!

…and so on.

Kafka would have a field-day with this…

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Nej Jinge, KBS-3 kostar inte pengar för all framtid

Bloggaren  Jan-Inge “Jinge” Flücht yttrade sig idag om den svenska slutförvars-metoden KBS-3. Han hade dock inte många siffror rätt, och vissa saker var totalt fel.

Jinge skriver om KBS-3: Dessutom kommer denna förvaring kosta pengar hela tiden. Den måste skötas, vaktas och underhållas.

Kommetaren jag ville skicka till hans blogg var följande:

Jag är ledsen Jinge, men det där stämmer inte. Det är rena faktafel du yttrade där.

KBS-3 är gjort för att vara underhållsfritt. När slutförvaret förseglas vid omkring 2070 är människan ute ur ekvationen för gott. Vi behöver inte lägga ett enda öre på slutförvaret därefter. Finansieringen för slutförvaret är säkrad via kärnavfallsfonden och inkomsterna till den tas direkt från elräkningen. Idag ligger påslaget på lite drygt 1 öre per kWh.

Och 100 000 år är inte alls obegripligt. I geologiska tidsramar är det knappt ens en blinkning. KBS-3 bygger erfarenheter från platser som Olko, Littleham Cove och Cigar Lake, där vi talar om tidsramar som är väldigt mycket längre än så. De naturliga rektorerna vid Oklo höll kärnavfallet inom sig i 1 700 000 000 år utan att det flyttade sig mer än 3 meter, det vill säga i storleksordningen 20 000 gånger längre än vad som krävs för att det skall bli ofarligt.

Jag förstår din oro Jinge, men du saknar vissa nyckelfakta i sammanhanget. Får jag i all blygsamhet föreslå att du surfar runt lite på SKB’s hemsida och läser in dig på vad KBS-3 innebär, vad forskningen bakom metoden är, och hur det är tänkt att fungera?

Dock kan man inte säga detta till honom på hans blogg för Jinge har nu varit herre på godset så länge att han klipper alla kommentarer som säger emot honom, alltid motiverat med det vaga “Läs kommetarsreglerna!” även om han själv har låg respekt för dem. Så det får bli svar här istället.

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How to get professionals to agree with your opinion

…or…

How the Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives used nurses to lie to the government.

Surveys and questionnaires are a simple and effective way of gauging people’s opinions. The result can then in turn be used to influence the opinions other people hold, most often to become opinions you want people to have.  And the more supposedly trustworthy the people you survey are, the greater you can expect the compliance to be.

Let me show you an example of this. This is a TV advert from 1949.

Simple enough isn’t it? If many medical doctors like this brand of cigarette, it must be really good, right? Right! Doctors can’t be wrong. Moving along…

Surveys and questionnaires that you make yourself have a nice bonus: you can make them any way you want. The advantage of this is that if you phrase the questions just right, you can get any answer you want.

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Greenpeace admits “emotionalizing” is one of their tactics

Gerd Leipold, executive director of Greenpeace International appeared on the BBC show “Hardtalk”.

When pressed about a specific issue where Greenpeace appeared to have exaggerated their claims, Leipold admitted they are “emotionalizing issues”, and that they do it willfully and consciously. He went on to defend this practice saying that they do not feel they gain enough sympathy for their statements if they do not “emotionalize” their messages.

We, as a pressure group, have to emotionalize issues, and we are not ashamed of emotionalizing issues.

Gerd Leipold – Executive Director of Greenpeace International, 2009

He may call it “emotionalizing”, but  that is merely a euphemism for scare-tactics, FUD and propaganda. When he calls it “emotionalizing” he is in effect green-washing the act of lying.

Greenpeace was not late to react to this and the signature “Brian” posted a blog entry lambasting BBC, saying they got it wrong about the factoid that triggered the confession. But while that blog post may be technically correct, it is insignificant because Leipold still admitted that “emotionalizing” is indeed a Greenpeace tactic.

If Greenpeace cannot argue their cases without “emotionalizing”, they are not only justifying skepticism, but rather necessitating it. This confession shows that scrutiny is long overdue. It proves it’s time we started looking at if they know what the heck they are talking about or just bilking sympathizers for money with whatever fairy stories they can come up with.

After all… we don’t exactly lack examples of  “emotionalizing” in the nuclear issue from Greenpeace…

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Nuclear power opponents trying to silence harsh criticism

This article is long overdue. Earlier I didn’t pay much notice to people using the power of the “delete” button on their blogs to shut out criticism of their reasoning – or lack of such. Just now however things stepped up a bit as Allianz Insurance, partner to the World Wildlife Foundation in creating the so called Climate Scorecards, just did the same thing.

Before we get to them, take a look at others who have discovered some of the practical buttons that comes with being a blog administrator.

Monica Antonsson, of the blog “Änglagård, Tjernobyl och Jag“, recently turned off the ability to post comments on her blog. She claims that this was because “[She] was terrorized by a rabid nuclear power lover”. What happened was that practically every blog post she made was quoting some other nuclear opponent. She admitted herself that she did not even fact check these quotes, only that she found them “interesting”. Most of these quotes had errors of fact, grossly exaggerated the state of matters or were in some other way worthy of criticism. When members of Nuclear Power Yes Please pointed that out to her, she claims we “spit on the information”.

Monica claims that she is not opposed to nuclear power, that she is “only collecting information”. But the links on her blog, not to mention her behaviour in general in the matter, tells a very different story. You don’t have a link with the headline “No to more nuclear power. You can sign (the petition) here!” when you are  “just collecting information”.

The thing that finally made her snap and turn off comments was when I relayed to her the fact that every nuclear reactor that replaces the equivalent amount of coal power saves up to 15 000 lives. Her immediate reaction was to lash out and call me a liar, without checking the fact. I relayed to her the data behind the statements, and she immediately dismissed them as conspiracies by the EU and the UN, and shortly thereafter turned off the ability to further criticise what she posed.

This is what she calls “being terrorized”. Well, I guess someone coming up to you telling you “You’re so very wrong” and showing he has good cause for it(!) is quite terrifying. 😀

Peter Swedenmark is a former editor in chief, and chief of the opinions & debate desk of a Swedish newspaper. After only two posts he made opposed to nuclear power under which I had discussions with other people on his blog, he quickly shut me out because “[he] didn’t want this to become a playground for nuclear proponents”. I guess having had the say-so of who gets to voice their opinion in the paper and who doesn’t was stuck as an old habit.

Anders Grönwall, press secretary of the Swedish Society for Nature Conservation(SNF) did not appreciate when I criticised their hate-campaign against nuclear power where they among other things constantly and next to obsessively call it “expensive and dangerous”. I wrote a comment on that saying that this had a certain likeness in method to another well known hate-campaign we all know about. The exact comment was:

Nobody except ardent opponents of nuclear power believes the scare-mongering where you are saying “Beware of the Jew…”, sorry, “Beware of Radiation, it will come and get you!

Anders Grönvall mailed me and said “It feels as if you are trying to say that nuclear opponents are like nazis”. I mailed him back and told him that this was of course not the case since trying to conserve nature and nazism were of course(!) completely unrelated. Such a connection would be completely invalid and silly. I also told him that I did not intend to not remove the comparison of the method since scare-mongering was the key issue I was criticising. He ignored all of those arguments and just repeated he wanted that wording removed. When I again wrote him a lengthy email explaining that if SNF did not agree, all they needed to do was defend themselves and argue the case. This mail he just ignored completely, never answered and withheld the comment.

And now, the latest one,  Thilo Kunzemannof Allianz SE. As you know we posted a critical blog entry about how WWF and Allianz wantonly manipulated emissions data on the climate scorecards. A bit later I found the Allianz web page about the scorecards for 2009. A conversation had already started and Thilo had posted a sour comment where he tried to defend Allianz saying they had not lied because they had in some places told people that they had changed and misepresented the data. I posted a comment saying that a lie does not become diminished just because you admit to it.

A strange turn of events then followed. Thilo mailed me and said he wasn’t going to approve the comment, claiming it was insulting to call them liars just because they admitted to lying. 😀 When I checked the page though, the comment was there, despite him saying he wouldn’t approve it. 24 hours later still, I got a email saying that the comment had been removed, and indeed it had. Luckily I saved a screenshot of it; you can grab it here.

All in all, we are seeing a pattern where nuclear opponents are getting increasingly desperate when their claims are getting challenged. Having had the stage practically to themselves for over 30 years, they are finding themselves stumped when someone else gets up there with them and starts criticising their arguments. 

Well they better get used to it. Trying to shut us out will not make us go silent. Oh no, quite the contrary. 😀

P.S: Greenpeace didn’t approve my comment critical of their Hiroshima Day article either. But I might write that one off since they don’t seem to be accepting any comments at all on those pages.

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We must abolish wind power because of World War I and II.

Yes it is true; the use of wind power is a constant reminder and an insult to all the millions of people that suffered and died in the world wars. And the reason for this is steel.

Steel was used to kill, maim and terrorize countless millions of people from 1914 to 1919 and 1939 to 1945. It was used in rifles, in tanks, in artillery shells and hand grenades. All of it culminating with the steel birds Enola Gay and Bockscar dropping atomic bombs on the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Steel and war are forever linked because you simply cannot wage war without steel.

The connection between war and wind power is steel. Practically every wind turbine in the world uses steel. Steel is everywhere in them: in the tower that holds up the turbine; in the gearbox; in the bolts that hold it together, just to mention a few examples. This of course means that wind power always connected with the use of weaponry and war.

Wind power is an insulting tribute to the memory of those who died in the world wars. Turning away from wind power and, in turn, weapons and war should be a true lasting legacy and memorial of those victims.

What?! Wait…

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The WWF cheats on the climate scorecards

The World Wildlife Foundation continuously makes so called “climate scorecards” for the G8 countries. Since the issue of whether a nation is acting in an environmentaly sound manner or not is a very complex one, the WWF is making these scorecards that summarize the G8 countries and gives them a ranking which makes it easier to see how they are doing.

In July 2009, the three top ranked countries were Germany, the United Kingdom and France. As you are probably aware, Germany and the UK rely heavilly on coal (24% and 28% of total respectively) and gas (23% and 35% respectively) for their energy production while France only gets 5% from coal and 14% from gas. That is 1/5 the amount of coal and about 1/2 to 1/3 the amount of gas. France’s emissions per produced kilowatthour of electricity is 86 grams carbon dioxide, while Germany outputs 495 grams per kilowatthour and the UK a whooping 572 grams per kilowatthour.

One would imagine that this should give France a great advantage over Germany and the UK and easily beat them at the top. Right?

Wrong!

The WWF ranks both Germany and the UK higher than France. Why? Because the WWF changed the figures. In the climate scorecard for France, we find the following footnote:

1 WWF does not consider nuclear power to be a viable policy option. The indicators “emissions per capita”, “emissions per GDP” and “CO2 per kWh electricity” for all countries have therefore been adjusted as if the generation of electricity from nuclear power had produced 350 g CO2/kWh (emission factor for natural gas). Without the adjustment, the original indicators for France would have been much lower, e.g. 86 g CO2/kWh.

There it is, in plain writing. They changed the numbers, simply because they don’t like nuclear power, thus down-ranking France despite being the lowest emitter of carbon dioxide by far of the G8 countries. They cheated on the scorecard by tweaking the numbers.

And it’s not some small tweak either. From 86 grams to 362 grams… that is upping the numbers to 400% of their actual value! What is their reasoning for this? “[The] WWF does not consider nuclear power to be a viable policy option”. In short: they don’t like it. So they quadrupled the number, just like that.

The WWF also ranked Sweden, there boosting of the numbers even more. For Sweden they change the number from 47 grams per kilowatthour to 212 grams. That is 450% of its original value.

UPDATE: At the Energy From Thorium forum, a person got in touch with Allianz Insurance and asked them what was the meaning of this obvious manipulation of number. The reply was this:

Re measurement in the report: We received criticism last year for not acknowledging the fact that some countries (i.e. France) have lower CO2 emissions thanks to nuclear power. But neither WWF nor Allianz wants to encourage nuclear power as the power source for the future. The fact that there is no solution for ultimate storage is a particular concern. And we think that this world needs a different strategy for its energy needs (renewables, efficiency) – which also leads to different investments in grids and other infrastructure.

They don’t want to “encourage” the use of nuclear power. But why would anyone be enouraged? Because it is environmentally friendly of course! And here I foolishly assumed that WWF was in it for the environment… but apparently not, because they don’t want people to be “enouraged” by the fact that nuclear power has extremely low emissions. So they changed that number outright.

Not only that but they are dead wrong when they say there are no viable solutions. KBS-3 is in the final stages of development. The work to grant the method environmental approval starts next year.

This is quite simply outtrageous. It is neither scientific, nor honest. This kind of smearing and badmouthing of nuclear power is what made us start this website, because even though one would hope that this is simply an isolated incident, it is not. This kind of deception is taking place constantly. The only thing unique about this particular case is the gall they have in admitting that they actually did it.

How are we meant to trust bodies like WWF when they do this sort of thing? Had this kind of behaviour taken place at a nuclear plant, their permit would have been rescinded and the people in charge would most likely be facing criminal charges for falsifying information! But the WWF gets away with it. Why? Why should they be allowed to cheat on the numbers just to make them fit the policy, rather than fitting the policy after the numbers? Science gets ripped to shreds because the truth is too unpalatable for the nuclear opponents to swallow. What gave them the right to do so?

And maybe the most important question of all: how is the climate, the environment and the population of this planet benefiting by bodies like the WWF lying to us? What gave them the right to defend their policy first rather than the environment? What becomes better from this?

60 Comments